The failed impeachment vote against President Yoon Suk Yeol, derailed by a lack of quorum on Saturday, has prompted sharp comparisons to the single vote that ousted President Park Geun-hye.

The focus now shifts to why only three members of the ruling People Power Party defied the party’s boycott, particularly when just eight defections would have been enough to push Yoon’s impeachment forward with 200 votes out of the 300-member Assembly.

The outcome is particularly notable given the People Power Party’s smaller size of 108 lawmakers, compared to the then-ruling 129-member Saenuri Party, or New Frontier Party, during Park’s impeachment.

The gravity of the allegations against Yoon, including acts of insurrection, has been deemed as far more severe than the influence-peddling scandal that led to Park’s impeachment eight years ago.

Observers in Seoul have pointed to four key factors behind the failed impeachment attempt: the rushed timeline for tabling the motion, just days after Yoon's martial law declaration, and the lingering trauma within the People Power Party from Park’s impeachment.

Additionally, while Yoon and the ruling party’s approval ratings are not strong, they have not plummeted as dramatically as those during Park’s impeachment.

The judicial risks facing Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, the current front-runner for his party, are also cited as a significant factor.

Impeachment trauma

The ruling People Power Party demonstrated unity during the impeachment motion against Yoon on Saturday, with only three of its 108 lawmakers -- Reps. Ahn Cheol-soo, Kim Yea-ji and Kim Sang-wook -- breaking ranks to participate in the vote. Kim Sang-wook later revealed he voted against the motion.

In December 2016, the picture was starkly different. A total of 299 lawmakers participated in the impeachment vote against Park, with 234 voting in favor. At least 62 members of Park's Saenuri Party voted to support the motion.

Politicians may have grown cautious about pursuing Yoon's impeachment, mindful of the bitter lessons from Park's case.

"First and foremost, the conservative bloc actually faced a state of collapse after supporting the motion for Park Geun-hye’s impeachment. This trauma from the devastation of conservatism in the aftermath of her impeachment seems to be the primary cause,” Eom Kyeong-young, director of the Zeitgeist Institute, told The Korea Herald.

The Liberty Korea Party, rebranded from the Saenuri Party, saw public approval hover around the low 10 percent range from January to May 2017. The Bareun Party, formed in January 2017 by anti-Park defectors advocating Park’s impeachment, failed to gain traction amid low approval ratings and internal strife and dissolved in 2018 through a merger with the Liberty Korea Party.

Breakneck speed

The impeachment motion against Yoon advanced at breakneck speed, introduced abruptly amid intense political strife. Opposition parties tabled it on Dec. 5, less than two days after Yoon’s late-night martial law declaration on Dec. 3, and pushed it to a vote by Dec. 7.

In contrast, Park’s impeachment vote in 2016 took 46 days to unfold after local media exposed an influence-peddling scandal involving leaked documents.

Political commentator Park Sang-byoung noted that during Park Geun-hye's presidency, "the ruling party had sufficient time to build internal consensus around impeachment as an unavoidable course of action."

"But currently within the People Power Party, there has been no internal consensus or shared understanding on how to handle this matter. Even they are unsure of what to do and are unprepared," he told The Korea Herald.

The lack of consensus on a road map to overcome the crisis is the key factor, not the trauma, preventing Yoon’s impeachment.

"If impeachment were to proceed immediately in this unprepared state, they would be even less equipped to deal with the aftermath. This is why impeachment is currently not considered a viable option. This context explains why Chair Han Dong-hoon has been advocating for what he describes as an 'orderly resignation.'"

Park Sang-byoung said the public perception that impeachment was inevitable was solidified, a sentiment reflected in the Dec. 3 candlelight vigil, which drew over 2.3 million participants ahead of the Dec. 9 vote.

Approval rate holding

Another factor is that the support rates for the ruling party and Yoon have not plummeted since Yoon’s martial law decree, unlike the steep decline seen during Park’s impeachment period.

"During Park Geun-hye's impeachment, her approval rating plummeted to as low as 5 percent, and her party's support dropped to around 12-13 percent," Eom said. "In contrast, President Yoon's approval rating is still above 10 percent, and the People Power Party's support remains steady at around 25 percent. This suggests that the severity of the situation has not yet fully resonated with the public or the party."

In late October 2016, media revelations of the influence-peddling scandal caused Park's approval rating, which had hovered around 30 percent earlier that month, to nosedive. By early November, it had dropped to 5 percent, continuing to hover around 4-5 percent through the year, according to Gallup Korea. During the same period, the Saenuri Party, now the People Power Party, saw its support fall to 12 percent in late November.

In contrast, a Realmeter poll conducted Dec. 5-6 showed Yoon’s approval rating at 17.3 percent, down 7.7 percentage points from the previous week. The People Power Party's support stood at 26.2 percent, a 6.1 percentage point drop, while the Democratic Party of Korea rose slightly to 47.6 percent, up 2.4 percentage points.

Lee's judicial risks

Lee Jae-Myung faces significant judicial risks with four ongoing court cases, including an appeal for a conviction of violating the Public Official Election Act, that could block his run for the presidential election and strip him of his National Assembly seat.

In mid-November, Lee was sentenced to one year in prison with a two-year suspended sentence for election law violations. If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, he will be disqualified from running for office for 10 years.

Article 270 of the Public Official Election Act mandates the swift trial of election-related offenses, stipulating that the first trial must be concluded within six months of the indictment, and the second and third trials must be completed within three months after the previous ruling.

Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae has called for ensuring this timeline is followed, meaning Lee’s political future could be determined within six months from mid-November.

"The sooner the next presidential election is held, the more advantageous it will be for Lee Jae-myung. In this regard, the ruling party likely intends to delay the election if possible," Eom said.