The Korea Herald

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Suspension of Yoon’s presidential power reduces economic uncertainty

Korean economy still faces lingering challenges

By Im Eun-byel

Published : Dec. 14, 2024 - 18:40

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An electronic board in a trading room at Hana Bank's Seoul headquarters displays the Kospi indice alongside the won-US dollar exchange rate on Friday. (Yonhap) An electronic board in a trading room at Hana Bank's Seoul headquarters displays the Kospi indice alongside the won-US dollar exchange rate on Friday. (Yonhap)

The National Assembly's decision to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol may have cleared some economic uncertainties, though challenges surrounding slowing growth and depreciation of the Korean won linger.

On Saturday, Korean lawmakers voted 204 to 85 to impeach Yoon.

Market watchers expect the stock market to pick up pace as the impeachment approval clears out uncertainties.

“For the capital market, the biggest enemy is uncertainties. With the impeachment providing clear prospects, the stock market is likely to inch up on Monday,” a researcher at a local finance institute said on condition of anonymity.

“Yet the stock market is unlikely to surge dramatically as the market has already priced in the possibility of an impeachment over the past few days.”

The benchmark Kospi closed at 2,494.46 on Friday, marking a 5.69 percent gain from the low it plummeted to Monday -- 2,360.18 -- after the first impeachment vote last Saturday was scrapped after People Power Party lawmakers boycotted it. Since Monday’s plunge, the Kospi has been inching up for four consecutive days.

Though the political turmoil here has been resolved to a certain extent, the Korean economy is left to deal with the threat of slowing growth. The Bank of Korea slashed next year’s growth outlook from 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent in late November, citing sluggish exports and domestic consumption.

The Asian Development Bank cut the growth projection for Korea from 2.3 percent to 2 percent on Dec. 11, shortly after the martial law fiasco, and many global investment banks have joined the move, cutting their growth projection for Korea to the 1 percent range.

Depreciation of the local currency remains a challenge as well. Amid the political turmoil sparked by the martial law declaration and the tug-of-war over President Yoon's impeachment, the Korean won has weakened against the US dollar to the 1,400 range.

Though the won had fallen in value against the greenback even before the martial law fiasco, the depreciation further intensified over the past few days.

The won-dollar exchange rate closed daytime trading at 1,433 won Friday, nearly 30 won higher than the 1,402.9 won on Dec. 3, before Yoon declared martial law.

“The continued weakness in the won could raise imported inflation,” Caroline Wong, an Asia country risk analyst at BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, said. “Such a situation would prevent the (central) bank from easing policy to maintain price stability.”

Wong further highlighted the uptick in price pressures could weigh on domestic consumption, and in turn, pose downside risks to the economy.

Though the projection for Korea’s exports remains bleak, experts believe the impact of the political turmoil on the country’s trading environment would be limited.

“Trading partners would be concerned about Korea’s political situation,” said Cho Sang-hyeon, head of the Institute for International Trade from the Korea International Trade Association. “Regardless of their political leaning, the incoming administration should prioritize boosting exports, which has not changed over past decades.”

Top finance policymakers, including Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, are to hold a meeting on Sunday to discuss the market's response to the impeachment vote.