By Kim Heung-kyu

Director of the US-China Policy Institute at Ajou University, President of the Plaza Project

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt at martial law poses a colossal challenge to Korea-US relations.

The Yoon government has most actively accepted the dichotomous foreign policies of democracy versus authoritarianism that the Biden administration proposed in its early period.

President Yoon has emphasized freedom and democracy in his speeches whenever he had the opportunity. He has not been afraid to get into conflict with China, has raised cross-strait issues, and has shown willingness to protect the principles of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. He has acted as a freedom and democracy fighter on the international stage, like a crusader under the banner of Christianity.

However, his attempt at martial law has rendered all of this meaningless.

It has also brought significant costs to Korea-US relations, the pillar of the Republic of Korea's security and foreign policies. The diplomatic line he has put forth will be reexamined entirely. Trump, who views international relations from a transactional perspective, will try to make the most of this opportunity.

However, South Korea’s leadership, which will have a six-month hiatus, will be helpless under Trump’s pressure. Countries surrounding the Korean Peninsula will actively intervene to push their interests into a divided and vulnerable South Korea.

South Korea must consider two scenarios in US-China relations in the second Trump era.

The first scenario is the US-China Cold War Scenario. Under this security environment, South Korea faces conflict with the US on defense-cost sharing. Trump announced a ninefold increase during the presidential campaign. Seoul and Washington just completed the burden-sharing negotiation with an annual 8.5 percent increase. South Korea may clash with the US on tariffs and subsidy reductions (under the Inflation Reduction Act).

In response to US reshoring policies, South Korea invested more than any other country in the US. However, the costs are higher in the US than in Korea, and efficiency is considerably lower. The other challenge may come from the North Korea issue. South Korea fears the US will bypass it in the denuclearization negotiations with North Korea.

The second scenario is the US-China’s grudging coexistence. Under this circumstance, Trump fails to acquire desirable results from China and is forced to compromise with China. Northeast Asia falls into China’s sphere of influence.

South Korea faces tremendous challenges due to rising issues related to US-China strategic competition in this Trump era: How will Korea secure economic survival space in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution? How will Korea respond to Trump's excessive demands and uncertainty? To what degree will Korea bear the costs incurred by the US's reshoring policy? Is strengthening the Korea-US alliance a necessary and sufficient condition? What security measures are required for Korea to Trump’s reduction of the US Army presence in Korea and increasing capabilities of North Korea's nuclear program? The policy of strengthening the Korea-US alliance is necessary, but it is not a necessary and sufficient condition for Korea's national interests.

Trump’s remarks during the presidential campaign underestimated South Korea's strategic values.

First, South Korea has been a natural ally of the US against China. Throughout history, Korea has been keen on China's growing influence over Korea. Korean nations are one of the few that survived after waging major wars against China’s dynasties.

Second, South Korea recorded the highest investment in the US globally, providing the highest-quality jobs for American people. South Korea will be the most capable country in shipbuilding, repair services for US military equipment, and manufacturing products.

Third, South Korea is the only country to compete with China in batteries and one of the few producing semiconductor products, which is essential for the US-China competition.

Fourth, the military base in Pyeongtaek and the port on Jeju Island are the closest military bases available for the US against China.

Fifth, South Korean polls say they consistently favor the US the most. China approached the US's favorable rate right before the THAAD issue occurred.

My suggestions for the South Korea-US alliance are: First, both countries must work together to elevate the alliance to new heights and deepen its substance. The US cannot achieve its vision of the American dream -- what Trump has publicly envisioned as its revival -- without the support of its key ally, South Korea.

Second, South Korea is a natural ally of the US. However, South Korea's national prestige and values should be respected rather than the US unilaterally forcing its hand.

Third, both countries must establish a collaborative strategic framework for a new world order and supply chains.

Fourth, both should promote new communication and engagement with North Korea combining diplomacy and economic methods rather than pursuing unilateral pressure strategies. They should also invite North Korea to join international society.

Fifth, cooperation in economy, science, and technology is essential to security and the Korea-US alliance in the future. Both need to strengthen policy coordination and investment in these areas.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own. -- Ed.