The outpouring of joy on social media after the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson suggests that America’s populist moment is evolving into something larger and more significant than just a backlash against the political establishment.

If so, it is also becoming something Americans have seen before. In the late 19th century, the People’s Party, also known as the Populists, targeted big business as well as establishment politicians, blaming large enterprises for both destroying Americans’ livelihoods and corrupting the government.

This change could be bad news for Donald Trump. The US president-elect is not the first Republican politician to purport to serve both commerce and the forgotten man; but after campaigning alongside billionaires and inviting them into his administration, he has stretched this claim to the breaking point.

The American Populists were mainly farmers in the South and Midwest whose fortunes plummeted as the country industrialized and as the cultural center of gravity shifted to the cities.

Both major parties neglected agrarian interests as they relitigated the Civil War and sought support from the rising commercial class (in the case of the Republicans) and the expanding ethnic populations in the cities (in the case of the Democrats).

Farmers, pummeled by the “Great Deflation” caused by the government’s insistence on paying off the war debt, thus took it upon themselves to mobilize, achieving political dominance in several states and greater influence in Congress.

The populists hated government elites in Washington, but they also hated the new businesses, particularly the railroads. The latter, they believed, discriminated against them in the market and corrupted the government through bribes and other forms of political influence.

Still, while they considered the entire system to be rotten, they had no clear idea how to reform it. Many Populist leaders hoped a Napoleon-like president would come to power and sweep away big business and big government alike.

It is a familiar story. Trump won the presidency in 2016 by attacking the political establishments of both parties, as well as the “deep state” (federal bureaucracy). But, owing to necessity as much as expediency, he rarely attacked the billionaire class to which he belonged.

While he blamed the political class for ignoring illegal immigration, globalizing trade, and meddling in foreign conflicts -- what he sees as the roots of America’s problems -- he did not oppose big business. Instead, he confined himself to attacking business leaders who criticized him and his programs.

Unlike in his earlier campaigns, Trump benefited from a kowtowing business establishment in 2024, and he has reciprocated by bringing billionaires into his inner circle. Elon Musk, now Trump’s most prominent cheerleader and surrogate, contributed more than $250 million to his campaign.

Meanwhile, others -- including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, billionaire investor Nelson Peltz, and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman -- have made their peace with Trump or are trying to.

But while billionaires’ dollars and backing helped Trump win, so did the votes of his most loyal supporters, the vast majority of whom are not wealthy. Many are non-college-educated, lower-skilled workers and religious social conservatives who have grown increasingly hostile toward business. Trump tapped into this hostility by attacking Big Tech and railing against corporate America’s attempts to appease the left with diversity programs and climate goals.

The question now is whether anti-corporate populism will grow in the United States as it did 140 years ago. The online celebration of Thompson’s murder was not noticeably partisan. Across the board, Americans today have a low opinion of corporate elites, with only 16 percent telling Gallup that they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot of” confidence in big business. That is less than for nearly all other institutions respondents assessed, including labor unions, the military, organized religion, public schools, higher education, the presidency, and small businesses.

While the 2024 election dashed the hope that America’s populist turmoil would end with the Biden administration, it remains to be seen what shape the movement will take. The 19th-century Populists petered out as deflation eased and farmers’ living standards finally improved toward the end of the century, and as party leaders realized that their best option was to fuse with the Democrats. But the populist impulse did not disappear.

The incoming Trump administration has vowed to round up illegal aliens and raise tariffs, but it will probably fail to reinvigorate the economy for the masses, who will watch the rich get richer on crypto and AI. If Trump doesn’t turn on the business class and lay the blame at its feet, someone else will. Maybe then business elites will finally appear in the political cross hairs, not just in those of lone gunmen.

By Eric Posner

Eric Posner, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, is the author of How Antitrust Failed Workers (Oxford University Press, 2021). The views expressed here are the writer's own. -- Ed.

(Project Syndicate)