Do humans act largely rationally, or can stories and rumors throw an entire economy off course? Lately, economists are increasingly recognizing that narratives matter.In the early 1920s, the US suffered a brutally sharp economic contraction, in which inflation turned rapidly to deflation and stock price-to-earnings ratios dropped to 50-year lows. The economists Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, in their book “Monetary History of the United States,” blamed an inexperienced Federal Reserve, which

Viewpoints Feb. 6, 2017

If 2016 was the year of reckless populism, then 2017 must be the year of clear-eyed patriotism. The surest way to confront demagogues like Donald Trump, and to manage ordeals like Brexit, is by appealing not only to reason but also to common purpose and duty.　The first step in containing irrational politics, and even turning them back, is to stop whining about what’s happened and start trying to understand it. The whining is understandable, to be sure: Populism is dangerous because it demands si

Viewpoints Jan. 6, 2017

The outgoing Obama administration apparently isn’t quite finished politicizing intelligence for the purpose of propaganda.　With his final term coming to an end, US President Barack Obama has signed an executive order to address a “national emergency with respect to significant malicious cyber-enabled activities.” The order sanctions Russia’s military and foreign intelligence agencies and their senior officials, three Russian technology companies, and two alleged hackers of Russian and Latvian ci

Viewpoints Jan. 5, 2017

Decades from now, when historians look back on 2016, they’ll of course take note of the momentous votes on both sides of the Atlantic. But if they’re interested in symbolism, they might find that an even more profound turning point occurred over the English countryside in early December, when a little flying robot buzzed though the air, alighted on a lawn and gently deposited a package for a happy customer.　It was the first real-world drone delivery for Amazon.com. And it offered a bracing glimp

Viewpoints Jan. 5, 2017

Here’s the one thing you need to do in 2017: You need to write everything down. Write down the great ideas you have in the middle of the night, the plots to novels, the blueprints for inventions, the obvious next steps for launching ourselves into fabulous careers and simultaneously solving the problems of the universe.　While most of these will not make sense in the morning, to have a record of them is both fascinating and hilarious.　And you never know: The 519th item might just contain precisel

Viewpoints Jan. 2, 2017

It’s time for everyone to stock up on experts to turn to for guidance. I’ll recommend several political scientists who write publicly -- bloggers, tweeters, columnists -- to help explain the political system in 2017.　Julia Azari blogs at Mischiefs of Faction and elsewhere and tweets about the presidency, parties and plenty of other topics. I’ve linked to her often in my Early Returns newsletter (you do subscribe, right?) and I highlight her here especially because of her work on presidential man

Viewpoints Jan. 2, 2017

One of the enduring mysteries of the fake-news epidemic is why it’s happening now, when it’s easier than ever for readers to fact-check stories with a few quick keystrokes. A Google search and a little common sense should be enough to cast doubt on stories that the Clintons are running a child sex ring from a pizza parlor, that Sharia law has been instituted in Florida or that CNN accidentally aired 30 minutes of pornography.　And yet, fake news was rampant in 2016. No, busloads of paid protester

Viewpoints Jan. 2, 2017

American foreign policy is at a crossroads. The United States has been an expanding power since its start in 1789. It battled its way across North America in the 19th century and gained global dominance in the second half of the 20th. But now, facing China’s rise, India’s dynamism, Africa’s soaring populations and economic stirrings, Russia’s refusal to bend to its will, its own inability to control events in the Middle East, and Latin America’s determination to be free of its de facto hegemony,

Viewpoints Jan. 1, 2017